Research

Under Review

"Democratic Transitions and International Conflict" 

Do transitions to democracy increase, decrease, or have no effect on international conflict? Prior empirical findings are mixed, with some prior studies finding a positive association, some a negative association, and still some others find no meaningful association at all. I develop a theory of democratic transitions and international conflict that focuses the timing of institutional adoption. I argue that democratic transitions are unlikely to increase a country's propensity to engage in conflict because countries are likely to adopt constraining institutions prior to transitioning to democracy. I test a variety of observable implications of my theoretical argument using a time-series cross-sectional matching and difference-in-differences research design to improve the credibility of causal inference. I find strong evidence to support my argument that transitions to democracy do not increase conflict. Rather, I find suggestive evidence that transitioning to democracy provides a small decrease in conflict over a short window after transition.

Status: Under Review. Link to paper. Presented at: 2022 Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference.

Working Papers

"Don't Stand by Silently and Watch: How Shaming Can Encourage Compliance with Human Rights Norms"

Does naming and shaming improve compliance with human rights norms or contribute to a backlash? Although shaming is a common and highly visible tactic used by both governments and human rights organizations, there is little consensus as to its effects on public opinion or policy. Some suggest shaming is likely to improve support for compliance with human rights norms, while others anticipate shaming to be counterproductive and worsen support for compliance. I develop a theory of shaming and public opinion that focuses on attitudes towards the government and human rights norms, and discusses multiple plausible causal pathways. I investigate the effects of shaming on public opinion using a preregistered survey experiment in the Philippines. I find that shaming reduces support for the government and decreases the perception that shamed policies are appropriate. Furthermore, I show that these findings hold even among members of the public that are a priori more likely to support illiberal policies. I also provide novel empirical evidence as to the mechanisms that could shape changes in public opinion. Shaming increases negatively valenced emotions such as anger and fear, which in turn appear to push attitudes in the direction of compliance with norms. Taken together, my experimental results suggest that governments should continue to use shaming as a diplomatic tool to advocate for better human rights practices.

Status: Working Paper. Presented at: 2025 International Studies Association Annual Conference Early Career Workshop (Accepted)

"The Legacy of Slavery and Group Attitudes Towards International Conflict" 

How does the legacy of violent political and economic institutions shape international cooperation? Building on a growing area of research examining the long-term effects of political violence, I argue that a strong legacy of political violence is likely to reduce international security cooperation. I examine this hypothesis using the case of US security cooperation with the UN, and the legacy of slavery in the US South. I find that Southern whites in places with a stronger legacy of slavery are substantially less likely to support security cooperation with the UN, across a variety of model specifications and identification strategies. I explore multiple potential mechanisms including sovereignty concerns, modern-day partisanship, racial resentment, economic underdevelopment, and isolationism. 

Status: Working Paper. Link to working paper.  Presented at: 2023 Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference.

"Leader Denial and Backlash to Naming and Shaming: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in the Philippines"

How do public denials in response to accusations of human rights abuses affect public opinion within countries targeted by international criticism? I develop a theory of public responses to denial by incorporating insights from social psychology, including self-categorization theory and social identity theory. My theory predicts that denial will generate a backlash effect -- increasing support for the leader, while reducing support for international cooperation -- when the national identity is highly salient or when the leader is broadly popular. I test observable implications from my theory using a novel between-subjects, vignette survey experiment in the Philippines. I find that the leader's denial does not meaningfully change public opinion in response to criticism from the United States, and that this result is not moderated individual-level differences in social identity.  I attribute this null result to the long history of bilateral cooperation between the U.S. and the Philippines. The results of this study suggest strong scope conditions on when leaders will be able to alter public opinion in response to shaming. They also suggest that allies can shaming suspected human rights abuses without suffering strategic costs in some circumstances.

Status: Working Paper. Presented at: 2024 International Studies Association Annual Conference, 2024 Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior Annual Conference, 2023 American Political Science Association Annual Conference.

Ongoing Projects

"Leave Your (Liberal) Shoes at the Door: How the United States' and China's Public Diplomacy Rhetoric is Shaping Public Opinion and Driving Great Power Competition in Southeast Asia" (with Nico Ravanilla) 

"Past Actions and Interstate Conflict" ( with Mark Souva) 

`"Does Naming and Shaming Increase Public Support for Keeping Climate Change Commitments?'' with Carlisle Rainey

"Regression Adjustment in Survey Experiments: A Practical Perspective" (with Carlisle Rainey and Winston Lin)

"Regime Transitions and Support for Alliance Commitments" (with Caroline Robbins)

"The Generalizability of Shaming across Issue Areas" (with Lotem Bassan-Nygate and Carlisle Rainey)

"Denial and International Responses to Mass Atrocities"

"Counterfactuals and Inference with Panel Data"